Wild Card Round Game Balls
Cincinnati 13, Houston 19
(I had Houston -4)
Arian Foster, RB, Houston. 32 carries for 140 yards and 1 touchdown.
Johnathan Joseph, CB, Houston. 5 tackles (all solo), 2 pass deflections, 1 interception returned for 14 yards.
Minnesota 10, Green Bay 24
(I had Green Bay -7.5)
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay. 23 of 33 for 274 yards and 1 touchdown (104.9 passer rating) and 2 carries for 12 yards.
Sam Shields, CB, Green Bay. 7 tackles (5 solo), 2 pass deflections, 1 interception.
Indianapolis 9, Baltimore 24
(I had Baltimore -7)
Anquan Boldin, WR, Baltimore. 5 receptions (targeted 7 times) for 145 yards and 1 touchdown.
Cary Williams, CB, Baltimore. 12 tackles (10 solo), 2 pass deflections, 1 interception returned for 41 yards.
Seattle 24, Washington 14
(I had Seattle -3)
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle. 20 carries for 132 yards and 1 touchdown.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle. 15 of 26 for 187 yards and 1 touchdown. 8 carries for 67 yards.
Divisional Round
Denver -9 over Baltimore
New England -9.5 over Houston
Nearly identical lines, identical picks, identical reasons. Both of these games already happened in the regular season and were huge blowouts for the favored teams. Furthermore, the New England and Denver offenses are clearly just something special. Offenses like this buzzsaw their way through the playoffs.
These picks are nearly unanimous in most NFL observer circles, and it isn’t hard to understand why. Baltimore and Houston both started off the year strong but declined dramatically as the season went on, whereas New England and Denver clearly separated themselves as the class of the AFC. And like I said last week, this Manning/Brady thing just really feels like destiny.
Atlanta -2.5 over Seattle
Green Bay +3 over San Francisco (and outright)
The NFC is where it gets a lot more tricky. Last week I gave significant mention of the Atlanta/Seattle game as one I “couldn’t wait to flip-flop about [...] approximately a million times when we’re doing it for real.” Now we’re doing it for real, and as you can see I’ve changed my pick.
To be perfectly honest, I think both of these games are too close to call. When games are too close to call it’s never a terrible idea to make your decision based on the quarterback, so in both cases I’ve chosen the more experienced quarterback. That makes me very comfortable with my Green Bay/San Francisco pick where I see a true disparity between Rodgers and Kaepernick.
There are a lot of reasons to have more questions in the case of Atlanta/Seattle. For one, there’s the idea that Matt Ryan is somehow allergic to playoff wins (which history shows is often not a reliable narrative, but is still something on people’s minds). For another, there’s the fact that Russell Wilson has already shown a propensity for leading dramatic game-winning drives.
The “he can’t win in the playoffs” argument just isn’t a very good one. Peyton Manning and Michael Jordan probably have a thing or two to say about making that determination after a few failed tries.
I can very easily see Seattle winning this game, but I just think the narrative is there for Atlanta to finally break through. Really, I can easily see any of the four teams left in the NFC making the Super Bowl, and that’s a pretty good place to be.
